Publication of Consolidated Semi-Annual Report 2012date: 24.08.2012 |
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Publication of Consolidated Quarterly Report for the 3rd quarter of 2012date: 14.11.2012 |
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IPOPEMA - 17.01.2011
Rekomendacja: TRZYMAJ, TP=60,00 PLN
After disposal of 9.3m of treasury stock in 2010, the share supply is no longer a threat. The risk related to large contracts in Poland (ZUS, PKO BP) is in our view manageable, although we think that in 2011 there may be some decline in revenues from PKO BP contract. With still no significant drivers for the improvement in results, the Company will stick to acquisitions, which in our view, may create some risk for the stock value. Assuming some deterioration of results at ACP parent company, the stock no longer seems very cheap at 11.8x P/E for 2011E. We slightly cut our forecasts, reduce the 12M TP from PLN 61.5 to PLN 60 and reiterate our HOLD stance.
Wood&Co - 22.11.2010
Recommendation: BUY, TP=68,7
We upgrade Asseco PL to BUY (from HOLD) and increase our price target to PLN 68.7 (from PLN 65.5), mainly on the back of the upward revision to our forecasts due to its recent acquisition of Formula Systems. We believe investors should buy the stock, given: a) its double-digit discount to its peers; b) the removal of the treasury share overhang; c) the increased stock liquidity; d) its good operational shape; and e) the potential advantages to be gained from global exposure after its acqusition of Formula.
Raiffaisen - 18.11.2010
Recommendation: BUY, TP = 63,5
The higher consolidated order backlog amounting to PLN 2.8 bn currently compared to PLN 2.2 bn in 3Q underpins our previously calculated revenues and earnings growth scenario for 2011e and 2012e, considering that our 2010e earnings estimate (PLN 375 mn) contains one-offs amounting to a total of approx. PLN 38 mn, in total (notwithstanding additional one-offs in 4Q). While we have just slightly modified the estimates of the Asseco Poland group in its current formation, we have also analyzed the impacts of the pending acquisition of 50.19% of the shares of Formula Systems group on our estimates and recommendation. We have thereby implemented the earnings estimates for the acquired group on the one hand and considered the dilution from the SPO of 5.4 mn new shares on the other hand. Based on a forecasted rather flat earnings development of the potential new subsidiary we have calculated an additional upside of some PLN 5.0 per share, so that we obtained sufficient upside for both scenarios – with and without Formula Systems – to upgrade our recommendation from “hold” to “buy”.
DM Millenium - 28.09.2010
Recommendation: HOLD, TP = 58,9
The report is available only in Polish language. In order to receive an English translation please contact DI Millenium.
DI BRE - 6.04.2010
Recommendation: BUY, TP=72.10 PLN
In 2010, Asseco Poland will have to cope for the first time without two major projects: the implementation of PKO BP’s IT system and the construction of the Central Database of Vehicles and Drivers for the Ministry of Home Affairs and Administration. The Company will continue to provide services related to these two systems, which will allow it to keep a major part of revenue from these projects. In addition, the lost EBIT will be by and large offset by savings stemming from the absorption of ABG by the parent company, the fact that subsidiaries acquired towards the end of 2009 will be consolidated
throughout the year, improved earnings at subsidiaries (especially Asseco Slovakia), as well as any potential acquisitions carried out this year. The Company is still trading at a considerable discount to peers (18% on FY10 P/E and 20.5% in FY10 EV/EBITDA, taking into account treasury shares). We are reiterating a buy rating with a price target of PLN 72.1 per share.
KBC Securities - 24.03.2010
Recommendation: BUY, TP=68.00 PLN
We have revised downwards our forecasts for Asseco after the operating profit missed expectations by 14% in 4Q09. We have cut our sales estimates from one of Asseco’s key client PKO BP limiting our expectations to maintenance only, from 2010 onwards. As a consequence, our net income forecast has been lowered by 10% to PLN 341.8m (down 8.5% y/y) for 2010, 8% to PLN 364.0m (up 6.5% y/y) for 2011, and 7% to PLN 380.7m (up 4.6% y/y) for 2012. This has lowered our fair value estimate by 11% to PLN 68.00 per share, which implies 21% upside. We continue not to incorporate the planned SPO in our forecasts, lacking details about the use of proceeds. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock.
Raiffeisen - 9.03.2010
Recommendation: HOLD, TP=61.00 PLN
While we have upgraded our 4Q 2009e revenues and earnings estimates due to the earlier than expected completion of major contracts of the parent company as well as of Asseco Systems we maintain with our original scenario of shrinking earnings for 2010e. Though Asseco Poland takes part in tenders of public institutions worth PLN 400 mn to be awarded in 1H 2010e no new long term big orders have been announced yet to fill the gaps in the order book left after the completion of the core banking system project at Bank PKO BP and the envisaged expiry of the contract of Polish insurance company ZUS in 3Q 2010 (approx. PLN 150 mn turnover p.a.). Although we reckon that the fading order backlog from the core 5 customers (PKO BP, ZUS, PZU, Polish Post, TPSA) will be compensated for by orders from the public and enterprise sector in the mid term we expect a setback of the group´s financial performance in 1H 2010e based on major new orders to be acquired only as of 2H 2010e.
ING Securities - 23.02.2010
Recommendation: BUY, TP=65.00 PLN
Asseco Poland’s share price has fallen 16% within the last two months, underperforming the WIG20 index by 10.5ppt. We believe this was related to delays in realisation of the announced rights issuance and outlook for falling earnings in 2010. With an unchanged 12-month forward TP of PLN65.0, offering 26.1% upside potential, we upgrade the stock to BUY.
Ipopema - 26.01.2010
Recommendation: BUY, TP=70.00 PLN
We are still positive on Asseco Poland and reiterate BUY recommendation. The Company trades at a material discount to the Polish and foreign peers. We consider this discount as unjustified. So far the Company managed to grow via relatively successful acquisitions. We still think that buying private companies at 7-8x P/E is a way to grow for Asseco for the time being. Organic growth should also rebound with macro improvement due to unfreezing in banking IT investments and start of large public contracts (especially in health). The Company seems inexpensive at 10.6x P/E for 2010E and even lower adjusting for Treasury stock.
Wood&Co - 21.01.2010
Recommendation: HOLD, TP=65.50 PLN
Asseco Poland (ACP) is a leading software house in Poland. It is exposed to the financial, public and corporate finance sectors, with the majority of its revenues (56%) coming from the sale of proprietary software and services. Asseco is one of the best managed IT companies in CEE, with a proven track record, including number of acquisitions. Its high share of proprietary software and long-term contracts secure both solid profitability and long-term visibility (with a 1.5 bil backlog accounting for 47% of the expected sales in 2010).
KBC Securities - 6.01.2010
Recommendation: BUY, TP=76.00 PLN
The brighter outlook for Asseco’s domestic operations is only partially offset by the strengthening PLN versus the €, which has a negative impact on the consolidation of foreign subsidiaries. As a result, we have increased our adjusted net income estimates by 3.0% to PLN 365.2m (up 26.9% y/y) for 2009, 7.5% to PLN 379.8m (up 4.0% y/y) for 2010 and 10.9% to PLN 395.1m (up 4.0% y/y) for 2011. These changes have boosted our fair value estimate by 8.6% to PLN 76.00 per share. Due to a lack of details about the use of proceeds, we do not incorporate the planned SPO into our forecasts. As our new fair value implies 20% upside from the current stock price, we maintain our Buy rating on the stock.
Raiffeisen - 5.01.2010
Recommendation: REDUCE, TP=60.00 PLN
The completion of one of the 5 major orders with Bank PKO BP in 3Q 2009 and the envisaged expiry of another major contract of the parent company with ZUS (Polish Social Insurance) in 4Q 2010e will leave a hole in the order book and it will be a major challenge for the management to fill it in a still fragile macro environment. Additionally, we expect a setback on the level of Asseco SEE due to its focus on the troubled banking sector and the continued economic weakness in South Eastern Europe. Since the consolidated order back log shrank already by almost 30% yoy from PLN 2.1 bn to PLN 1.5 bn in 3Q we anticipate an enhanced revenues decline on yoy comparison with consequential declining earnings for the quarters to come.
Ipopema - 1.12.2009
Recommendation: BUY, TP=69.00 PLN
We are still positve on Asseco Poland and reiterate BUY recommendation. The Company trades at a material discount to the Polish and foreign peers. We consider this discount as unjustified. So far the Company managed to grow via relatively successful acquisitions.
DI BRE - 19.11.2009
Recommendation: BUY, TP=71.90 PLN
The report is available only in Polish language. In order to receive an English translation please contact DI BRE.
ERSTE - 17.11.2009
Recommendation: BUY, TP=73.80 PLN
From Accumulate to Buy: Strong results prompted an increase of estimates. We set the new target price at PLN 73.8 (after PLN 72.1).
UniCredit - 8.10.2009
Recommendation: BUY, TP=70.00 PLN
Asseco Poland is poised to expand its 2010-2011 order backlog by the new IT projects from PKO BP. The company’s leading client has earmarked PLN 658mn for IT systems upgrades over 2010-2011. Having successfully concluded the implementation of the core IT system, Asseco Poland – in our view – appears to be the natural beneficiary of PKO BP’s expanded IT budgets. We are increasing our 2010/2011E earnings estimates by a respective 20%/22% and upgrading Asseco Poland to a Buy with our new 12M target price increased 23% to PLN 70.
In order to receive a copy of this report please contact UniCredit.
ERSTE - 30.09.2009
Recommendation: BUY, TP=72.10 PLN
We increase our target price to PLN 72.1 (from PLN 69.3) but downgrade Asseco Poland from Buy to Accumulate, following the recent share price development.
Raiffeisen - 22.09.2009
Recommendation: HOLD, TP=64.70 PLN
Despite a satisfying order backlog of PLN 1.1 bn, which ensures vastly fulfilment of our top line estimate for 2009e the expiry of major contracts in the group (e.g. PKO BP, Volksbank Serbia) will weigh on the top line development in 2010e in a still tight IT market in CEE. Due to the anticipated decelerated revenue growth perspective, a lower earnings contribution from the parent company after elimination of one-offs in 2009e (e.g. sale of treasury shares) and the cancellation of the earlier announced minority squeeze out at Asseco Slovakia hampers further earnings growth.
KBC Securities - 15.09.2009
Recommendation: BUY, TP=70.00 PLN
We reiterate our Buy rating on Asseco. We have increased our earnings estimates to reflect the firm’s strong 2Q09 figures and the brighter economic outlook for CEE over the medium term. We have also removed the share swap with Asseco Slovakia from our model: this had a negative impact on net profit but was slightly positive for earnings per share (EPS) for 2010-2011.
IDM - 8.09.2009
Recommendation: HOLD, TP=66.70 PLN
Asseco Poland continues to constitute a bet on (i) the performance on the IT markets across Europe and (ii) the maintenance of the ability to create shareholder value via further M&As (both in CEE and in Western Europe).
In order to receive a copy of this report please contact IDM.
Wood&Co- 4.09.2009
Recommendation: HOLD, TP=68.50 PLN
We downgrade Asseco Poland (AP) to Hold on the back of reignited concerns over the share overhang as well as on expectations of decelerating growth.
Millennium - 2.09.2009
Recommendation: HOLD, TP=70.10 PLN
The report is available only in Polish language. In order to receive an English translation please contact Millennium.
DI BRE - 2.09.2009
Recommendation: BUY, TP=72.60 PLN
The report is available only in Polish language. In order to receive an English translation please contact DI BRE.
ING Securities - 17.07.2009
Recommendation: BUY, TP=65.60 PLN
The report is available only in Polish language. In order to receive an English translation please contact ING Securities.
Ipopema - 13.07.2009
Recommendation: BUY, TP=64.00 PLN
Asseco is the largest local IT player in Poland, with good backlog – its structure (high share of higher margin proprietary solutions) and the level – materially higher yoy. We like the defensiveness – ca. 40% of sales come from maintenace and development, including large long term contracts and the upside potential – strong presence in the financial sector in Balkans.
UniCredit - 26.05.2009
Recommendation: HOLD, TP=57.00 PLN
We are downgrading Asseco Poland to a HOLD following a 14% gainin share price (since our 9 April update) that appears to havediscounted the positive implications of its better than expected 1Q. 1Q results and announced backlogs inspired our 3% (2009E) and 4%(2010E) earnings upgrades and subsequent 4% increase in our (50/50DCF/comparable) 12M TP to PLN 57.
In order to receive a copy of this report please contact UniCredit.
BZ WBK - 21.05.2009
Recommendation: BUY, TP=73.00 PLN
1Q’09 results come in very strong, far above market expectations, but it is the company’s herculean backlog that guarantees recurrence of solid
quarterly performance. Asseco Poland’s consolidated backlog settles presently at 75% of 2008 revenues, but most importantly the ‘proprietary backlog’ (AP’s bottom line pillar) already went through the roof at 105% of its FY’08 reading. In these conditions, the CEO’s promise of AP beating market consensus for 2009 net profit (PLN 312m) seem more than warranted.
ERSTE - 11.05.2009
Recommendation: BUY, TP=69.30 PLN
Our coverage leads us to believe that Polish IT companies are the most interesting from investors’ point of view at the moment. Software producers Asseco Poland and ComArch are both backed by a strong backlog and recent acquisitions should help to fuel further growth. Of course, we also expect that they will both face a tougher year in 2009, especially regarding margins. Still, both companies offer fundamental potential that clearly translates into Buy recommendations.
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